Israel-Palestine Conflict: Present and Historic Geopolitical Realities and Way Ahead
As the world stares towards the Third Intifada (Uprising) in Israel-Palestine conflict with social media abuzz with videos of attacks from both ends, it becomes essential to trace the conflict and how extremists from all ends have used it to further their own ends without regard to a long terms solution and thus leading to the present build-up. This region under the Ottoman Empire had followers of all Islam, Judaism, and Christianity living together peacefully. Jerusalem, which lies in this region, is considered the holiest site in Judaism and Christianity and is also home to Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest mosque in Islam.
The end of the 19th century saw a rising sentiment of Zionism or Jewish nationalism where they sought their own nation. The Britishers tried to capitalize the same with the Balfour Declaration of 1917. They promised, “The establishment in Palestine of a national home for Jewish People” to get their support in World War 1. With the Ottoman defeat, Palestine came under British occupation, and large-scale migration of Jews worldwide started to Palestine. This migration saw a massive increase with the Nazi Holocaust, and World War 2 saw the transformation of the demographic landscape of Palestine. This change became a cause of regular conflict between the two communities. After the war, realizing the futility of holding over to Palestine, Britain handed it over to the UN to finally reach a solution. The United Nations, on its part, came with a Plan in 1946 to divide Israel and Palestine as two independent nations, with Jerusalem being an Internationally Administered Region.
Courtesy: Brittanica
So while this plan could have been an end to the crisis, it, in fact, became its beginning with the Arab world understanding it as an imperialist Plan and launching a war to seek the obliteration of Israel in 1948. It ended in 1949 with Israeli victory, and it now controlled its entire sanctioned area according to the UN plan and 60% of the area of the proposed Arab state. This controlled area also included West Jerusalem. East Jerusalem and the West Bank now came under Jordanian control, while the Egyptian Military controlled the Gaza strip. Ironically, those who proposed to fight for the Palestinian cause appropriated their property, and instead of helping form a new nation, just added the area to their nations. It leads to the creation of over 7,00,000 Palestinian refugees and the migration of 7,00,000+ Jews to Israel from across the Arab world. The holy sites of Temple Mount and Al-Aqsa mosque, being part of East Jerusalem, now came under the Jordanian administration.
Courtesy: BBC
The conflict took another turn in 1967, with Egypt blocking the Straits of Tiran, which brought cargo to Israel, despite previous conflicts over the same and explicit declaration by Israel that it would be considered an act of war. Within six days, Israel won a war against Egypt, Jordan, and Syria combined. This time though, it acquired the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt and Golan Heights from Syria. This day is celebrated in Israel till date as ‘Jerusalem Day,’ i.e. when it occupied east Jerusalem, which housed the Temple Mount. Israel was now responsible for the administration of the very people it had fought for decades. The real cause for a Palestinian nation was up for toss because of the stances of neighbouring Arab nations. Most people in current discourse forget that a free Palestine was not a distant dream and something to fight for but rather a reality that was fought against for gains by those very countries who portrayed themselves as the guardian of the cause.
Courtesy: BBC
In 1978, Israeli Prime Minister Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat signed the Camp David Accords to establish peace between the two countries, which led to the Sinai Peninsula’s return. However, what it also led to was the assassination of Sadat in 1981 and the expulsion of Egypt from the Arab League in 1979 because apparently, he did not put enough pressure on Israel about Palestine. Meanwhile, Israel started settling its people in the West Bank. These settlements, which are described as illegal in international law, were promoted through advertisements and incentives, making them cheaper and emotionally attractive. While this might look like a small step, it permanently closed the doors for a unified West Bank administration in hindsight. These settlements were followed by evictions, conflicts, and the naturally increased presence of security forces. Gradually the settlements began to be surrounded by high walls and police checkups. Palestine was now inhabited by enclosed spaces of Israeli settlements which had no intention or possibility of vacating later.
Among all this, the 1st Intifada (Uprising) began in 1987, where Arabs started violent protests and riots inside the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Israel against its 1967 expansion. These widespread protests devoid of any central leadership sent a clear message that the Palestinian leadership needed to take viable steps to assume control and show progress; otherwise, they might lose relevance. In 1988, the Palestinian Liberation Organization, led by Yasser Arafat, finally moved to identify the right of Israel to ‘exist.’ Imperative to note that the entire movement till then had a unilateral target of removing Israel and establishing Palestine throughout the land. 1993 marked a breakthrough with the signing of the Oslo Accords between Israel and PLO, brokered by the US, following UN Resolution 242, which facilitated the division of Palestine into three categories. One with civil and Military control of Palestinian Authorities, the second with Palestinian civil and Israeli military control, and the third with civil and military control resting with Israelis. While this finally allowed for some form of Palestinian Authority, the cost was the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Rabin by an Israeli extremist who opposed the terms of the accords.
Courtesy: Middle East Eye
To explore further developments, we need to dwell deeper into the theological relevance of Haram-Al-Sharif/Temple Mount. It is estimated to be the site where the First and Second Holy Temple stood. It is thus the Holiest site in Judaism. The Romans destroyed the second temple in 70 CE. After the Crusades, it came under Islamic control, and the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa Mosque were constructed at the same spot. The commonly circulated picture of a Golden Dome is the Dome of The Rock, where it is believed that Prophet Mohammed ascended to heaven. Meanwhile, what only remains of the Herodian architecture is the base of the Western Wall which is the spot where Jews across the world come to pray. It is the last remaining remnant of the Herodian past and is considered the holiest place in Judaism, where God is closest. It is part of the same Temple Mount compound. The compound currently is governed by a Jordanian controlled and funded Waqf. To maintain the status quo, non-muslims are neither allowed to enter the mosque nor pray in the entire compound. The security, though, is under Israeli control. Since the Western Wall lies at the boundary, Jews pray on the outskirts of the compound.
To explore further developments, we need to dwell deeper into the theological relevance of Haram-Al-Sharif/Temple Mount. It is estimated to be the site where the First and Second Holy Temple stood. It is thus the Holiest site in Judaism. The Romans destroyed the second temple in 70 CE. After the Crusades, it came under Islamic control, and the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa Mosque were constructed at the same spot. The commonly circulated picture of a Golden Dome is the Dome of The Rock, where it is believed that Prophet Mohammed ascended to heaven. Meanwhile, what only remains of the Herodian architecture is the base of the Western Wall which is the spot where Jews across the world come to pray. It is the last remaining remnant of the Herodian past and is considered the holiest place in Judaism, where God is closest. It is part of the same Temple Mount compound. The compound currently is governed by a Jordanian controlled and funded Waqf. To maintain the status quo, non-muslims are neither allowed to enter the mosque nor pray in the entire compound. The security, though, is under Israeli control. Since the Western Wall lies at the boundary, Jews pray on the outskirts of the compound.
Courtesy: Middle East Eye
To explore further developments, we need to dwell deeper into the theological relevance of Haram-Al-Sharif/Temple Mount. It is estimated to be the site where the First and Second Holy Temple stood. It is thus the Holiest site in Judaism. The Romans destroyed the second temple in 70 CE. After the Crusades, it came under Islamic control, and the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa Mosque were constructed at the same spot. The commonly circulated picture of a Golden Dome is the Dome of The Rock, where it is believed that Prophet Mohammed ascended to heaven. Meanwhile, what only remains of the Herodian architecture is the base of the Western Wall which is the spot where Jews across the world come to pray. It is the last remaining remnant of the Herodian past and is considered the holiest place in Judaism, where God is closest. It is part of the same Temple Mount compound. The compound currently is governed by a Jordanian controlled and funded Waqf. To maintain the status quo, non-muslims are neither allowed to enter the mosque nor pray in the entire compound. The security, though, is under Israeli control. Since the Western Wall lies at the boundary, Jews pray on the outskirts of the compound.
Courtesy: ProCon.Org
This remains a point of contention since several extremist Israeli groups started demanding the destruction of the Al-Aqsa mosque and the Dome of Rock to establish the Third Temple in its place. One such attempt by Ariel Sharon, the prime ministerial candidate, in 2000 led to the Second Intifada, which continued till 2005 and scores of death on both sides. By this time, Israel had made the mind to manage the conflict rather than reach a solution. End 2004 also marked the death of Yasser Arafat. Hamas then won the parliamentary election in Palestine, but this marked the violent conflict between Hamas and Fatah. Both targeted officers and leaders of each other. Several nations refused to aid Hamas and considered it a terrorist organization based on its aims and means. Finally, in 2007, post the Battle of Gaza, Palestine was de-facto divided into the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with Hamas retaining control of Gaza.
Interesting to note here is that Hamas is aided and supported by Iran and Turkey. It also gets support from neighbouring Hezbollah of Lebanon. Several Iranian Presidents have sworn the removal of Israel from the map of the world, and Hamas runs on similar targets. It has been using rockets and suicide bombings as a regular means to attack Israel.
Coming back to the present context, it all began with the protests against the forced eviction of Palestinian families from the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood of East Jerusalem. It was based on the law that Jewish families who could prove their property ownership in pre-1948 Wartime could reclaim their properties now if Palestinians had occupied them. So, while that might legally make sense, the issue is the lack of any similar law in aid of Palestinians. Thus, any Palestinian who had been removed from his property in any war had no right to return, unlike Jews, which further amounts to discriminatory laws. To suppress the protest and understand the fuse that might blow off considering the vast congregation of Palestinians for Ramadan prayers, Israel blocked popular meeting points of Palestinians. It further angered them.
Interestingly this year marked the clash of the Muslim holy night of Laylat Al Qadr and Jerusalem Day on 9th May. A mega Jewish rally was supposed to arrive at Western Wall, and the Palestinians were under tension considering the recent clashes. So, they assumed that the rally was meant to destroy Temple Mount and Al-Aqsa Mosque and hence collected stones, minimal weapons, etc., and blocked the entries to the main compound converting it into a citadel. This paved the way for the entry of Israeli forces into the compound to clear off protestors and weapons. The scenes of this particular entry are doing rounds on social media. Israeli forces, as usual, were brutal in suppressing this protest. Hamas warned Israel that it would target them with rockets if they do not exit from the Al-Aqsa compound, and true to its word, a barrage of rockets were fired on all major Israeli cities. The Iron Dome defence system intercepted 1000s of rockets in the air. Sirens were wailing all over Israel, and people rushed to shelter camps. Some missiles indeed hit some hospitals, residential areas, buses, etc., leading to several casualties. Then, in the name of self-defence, Israel has started targeting Hamas officials, offices, and weapons sites through air raids. Their ground forces have also joined the campaign, and the blood loss is heavy.
Other facts worthy of noticing and are assumed to have played a significant role in the current escalation are domestic considerations of people in power. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is dealing with corruption cases in the court, and in case he cannot latch on to premiership, he is bound to go to jail. Over the past two years and four elections, Israel has not elected a majority government. Currently, the opposition parties were poised to reach a coalition agreement to oust Netanyahu. The present crisis has made it nearly impossible for them to set aside ideological differences and avoid the Palestinian question, making it much conducive for Netanyahu to consolidate his support and continue in power. Similarly, Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian State, recently postponed the elections, which Hamas was expected to win against his Fatah. The rocket launching and aggression by Hamas can also be seen as an attempt by Hamas to gain the leadership of the Palestinian cause and further its hand in the coming Palestinian elections. It is also important to note that Hamas is known to shelter its weapons and attack stations among residential areas to make it difficult for Israeli defence forces to attack without civilian casualties.
Geopolitically, while some were surprised at the silence of the Arab world, any keen observer would have predicted this. Over the past few decades, the alliances in the Arab world have been realigning themselves. Iran has emerged as a significant security threat to the Sunni world as well as Israel. The alliances and proxies of Iran across the Middle East, including in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, etc., have made it the pre-eminent threat to Saudi dominance in the Muslim Ummah. To realign the forces against Iran, Saudi and its domain started to get closer to Israel. This finally manifested itself through the Abraham Accords, brokered by the US, where UAE and Bahrain established official relations with Israel with the tacit approval of the Saudi prince and de-facto ruler Mohammed-bin-Salman. Thus, it would be highly irrational to think that Saudi and the Ummah would come forward to defend an Iranian proxy. Several other nations have been attempting to strike a balance between relations with Israel and the Palestinian cause. To support the Palestinian right to self-determination and support the right of Hamas, as a terrorist organization to attack Israel, are two very different things in the present context which people generally misinterpret. The United States has nonetheless has remained an iron brother to Israel despite the regime in power. Recently, Donald Trump kicked up a storm by recognizing unified Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and shifting its embassy over there. This was a major shot in the arm for the Israeli regime and was followed by similar moves of some other countries. In common understanding, most countries maintain their embassies in Tel Aviv in recognition that the entire Jerusalem doesn’t belong to Israel.
There are several solutions suggested to the crises. The status quo with a discriminatory Israeli regime and different administrations in the West Bank and Gaza are non-sustainable, to say the least. While a one-state solution of combining Israel and Palestine is proposed, it ignores the fact that Jews would not remain the majority and would stand losing power to an Arab government if this happens. This very prospect would make them vary of such a suggestion. Another possibility would be to deny voting rights to Palestinians, which would mean converting Israel from a democracy to an apartheid state with discriminatory provisions. A two-state solution hence remains the most viable. However, for that, the conflict between Fatah and Hamas needs to be sorted, and for Hamas to even be considered worthy of holding power, it has to accept and recognize the existence of Israel and loosen its hardline stance of seeking its destruction. Israel would not be comfortable allowing power in the hands of a terrorist regime in its backyard. Its all-out attack in the current circumstance is evidence of the same.
It could be said that for any final solution, extremists from both sides would have to recognize the legitimate rights and narratives of the other and be willing to negotiate for peace. Any form of reluctance to compromise would ensure that the conflict would continue. In light of the higher organization of Israelis, the deaths and losses on the Palestinian side would be harsher than ever before.
Falit
Student at St. Stephen College